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Tuesday, November 3, 2020

So How Do I Read Tomorrow's Most Pivotal of American Presidential Elections, The One Historians Will Doubtless Write About For Time Immemorial, Or Rather WOULD, Were Time To Last Long Enough To? Having Carefully 'Consulted'/Been Presented With the Major Scenarios/Prognosticators (Four Especially), I Tend to Suspect It'll Play Out in One of Two Essential Ways: Either An Outright Landslide Win By Joe Biden, Even to the Point of Garnering States (Such as Georgia and Texas) That Former Democratic Party Presidential Wannabes Could Only Dream Of, and In the Process Amassing An Unassailable Lead in Electoral College Votes (Alongside a Huge Popular Vote Margin That the Likes of Former Presidents FDR, Lyndon Johnson, Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan Might Have Been Proud of), or Donald J TRUMP Will Squeak Back by the Barest of Margins, Doubtless by Winning in the All-Important State of *Pennsylvania (and Of Course Florida) Whilst Not Managing to Lose Such Usual Republican Heartland Territory as Arizona and Nevada (Though These are Comparative 'Small-Fry' in the Overall Scheme of Things) - Alongside Maine's and Nebraska's Individual Electoral Votes; North Carolina and Virginia, But Primarily Texas and Georgia; Meanwhile Holding Onto Good 'Ole OHIO (America's 'Little League' State); Whilst Also Picking Up the Likes of New Hampshire Just for Good Measure. And HOW SO? Due to the SILENT BREXIT EFFECT, So-Imagined; Where, Just as Britain's Conservatives Under Boris Johnson Recently Secured A Massive, Historic Landslide Victory Over British Labour, the 'Silent Majority' Come Out, Holding Their Noses and Duly, Dutifully, 'Covidly' Covering Their Faces, and Ticking Trump DESPITE IT ALL. Though Methinks, Having Said All That, THIS TIME He's Bitten Off Way More Than He - or Anyone Else for That Matter - Can Reasonably Chew (Much Less Thoroughly Masticate); Having Pretty Well LONG SINCE Secured His Own Death-Knell By the Way He's Managed To TOTALLY AND UTTERLY Stuff Up America's Coronavirus Response, Making America the VERY HELL-HOLE He Had the Bald-faced Temerity the Other Day to Accuse Our Own Kiwi Government of Making Our Own Land of Aotearoa-New Zealand. And Seniors, More's the Pity for Trump, Tend to Have Somewhat Longer Memories Than He Can Be Accused of, and Naturally Would Hardly Look All That Kindly Upon Those Who Regard Them as Cluttering up the Landscape, Much Less as Dispensable Throwaways and Even Worthwhile Collateral Damage So To Speak for That Most Sacred of American Cows, MONOPOLY Capitalism. NO SIRREE.

Acknowledgment in thus making up my mind - but actually, no, they only confirmed me in those two directions I'd already (long since) arrived at anyway - must go to the four individuals alluded to below; though, yes, I arrived there with a little help from such psephological friends, I freely admit...

Anyway, I acknowledge the following (quite individuated) foursome... 

Latterly, I consulted Nate Silver, but only as the final voice (c/o his '528 website') of these four - being of course the pundit/pollster who so famously got the 2016 Election right whereas virtually all others made a complete hash of it...

...preceded by Henry Olsen, whose own calculations etcetera (for 'The Washington Post' et al, I do believe), I spent awhile earlier this evening poring over, finding them fascinating stuff indeed, focusing upon the close association between approval ratings of various presidents, especially the final ones preceding (would be) re-elections, and actual re-election...

Though his evaluation contained many other interesting bits 'n bobs, like another much-quoted presidential election prognosticator, whom Mike Hosking briefly interviewed this/yesterday morning (his name meanwhile eludes me) he safely seemed to go/rely upon the general tenor of certain trends, and thus found the likelihood of Joe Biden winning and Donald Trump losing to be fairly substantial and weighty.               

This morning's interviewee has also been interviewed of late upon RNZ National Radio etcetera, and had/has a scale of eight or ten 'indicators'/indicative measurements for evaluating a particular incumbent's/incumbent president's chances of returning to office...

The first of the four was another *'forgotten' name (*but evidently linked to The Washington Post again) who simply held to the 'Brexit effect', imagining a  rerun of sorts of Presidential Election 2016, whereby the then outsider Trump managed to garner a relatively miniscule (in the overall scheme of things) number of votes of largely disenfranchised blue-collar workers (in particular) in a couple of (unexpectedly) 'swing states', and thus and so c/o the state of Pennsylvania in particular Trump would beat his path back to the White House...

...though apparently he has no intention whatsoever of even vacating the premises upon Election Night, evidently believing that 'possession is (indeed) nine-tenths of the law'... 

Some Mothers Do 'Ave 'Em!

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