Acknowledgment in thus making up my mind - but actually, no, they only confirmed me in those two directions I'd already (long since) arrived at anyway - must go to the four individuals alluded to below; though, yes, I arrived there with a little help from such psephological friends, I freely admit...
Anyway, I acknowledge the following (quite individuated) foursome...
Latterly, I consulted Nate Silver, but only as the final voice (c/o his '528 website') of these four - being of course the pundit/pollster who so famously got the 2016 Election right whereas virtually all others made a complete hash of it...
...preceded by Henry Olsen, whose own calculations etcetera (for 'The Washington Post' et al, I do believe), I spent awhile earlier this evening poring over, finding them fascinating stuff indeed, focusing upon the close association between approval ratings of various presidents, especially the final ones preceding (would be) re-elections, and actual re-election...
Though his evaluation contained many other interesting bits 'n bobs, like another much-quoted presidential election prognosticator, whom Mike Hosking briefly interviewed this/yesterday morning (his name meanwhile eludes me) he safely seemed to go/rely upon the general tenor of certain trends, and thus found the likelihood of Joe Biden winning and Donald Trump losing to be fairly substantial and weighty.
This morning's interviewee has also been interviewed of late upon RNZ National Radio etcetera, and had/has a scale of eight or ten 'indicators'/indicative measurements for evaluating a particular incumbent's/incumbent president's chances of returning to office...
The first of the four was another *'forgotten' name (*but evidently linked to The Washington Post again) who simply held to the 'Brexit effect', imagining a rerun of sorts of Presidential Election 2016, whereby the then outsider Trump managed to garner a relatively miniscule (in the overall scheme of things) number of votes of largely disenfranchised blue-collar workers (in particular) in a couple of (unexpectedly) 'swing states', and thus and so c/o the state of Pennsylvania in particular Trump would beat his path back to the White House...
...though apparently he has no intention whatsoever of even vacating the premises upon Election Night, evidently believing that 'possession is (indeed) nine-tenths of the law'...
Some Mothers Do 'Ave 'Em!
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